Cadiz 0-3 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cadiz face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Real Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Madrid are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cadiz, 2 for Real Madrid and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Real Madrid winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Real Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 30% | Real Madrid 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.867 / defence 0.898 | Real Madrid attack 1.204 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.195. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Cadiz games / 51 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 27% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 42%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Real Madrid 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Real Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 27% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cadiz 0.99 / Real Madrid 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.867 / def 0.898 | Real Madrid attack 1.204 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Real Madrid xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Madrid kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Cadiz 0 - 3 Real Madrid.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Madrid part of?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 27% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cadiz and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Record (4 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 2 | Real Madrid 2W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
27%
3.70
31%
3.24
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.28
1.29
Real Madrid xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.29 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 16D 22L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid's form line: 33W 8D 9L from 50 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L).
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 15W 2D 8L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.02 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 16D 22L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 33W 8D 9L in their last 50 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.44 PPG; Real Madrid away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Real Madrid runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
4
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Real Madrid have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Real Madrid 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 52% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Real Madrid in 40%; Cadiz have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 48% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 52% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Cadiz 0-3 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.29 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Real Madrid outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Real Madrid attack 1.20 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 27% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 42%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 30%, Real Madrid 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.