Osasuna 1-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 38%, yet in-form Las Palmas provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Las Palmas at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Las Palmas have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Las Palmas's away record over their last 6 away games: 2W 0D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Las Palmas — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Las Palmas 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 50% | Las Palmas 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.14 xG and Las Palmas 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.835 / defence 1.118 | Las Palmas attack 0.727 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.232. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Osasuna's last 50 games and Las Palmas's last 12.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.60 | Draw 3.34 | Las Palmas 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Las Palmas (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Osasuna 1.14 / Las Palmas 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.835 / def 1.118 | Las Palmas attack 0.727 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Las Palmas xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Las Palmas kick off?
Osasuna vs Las Palmas kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Osasuna vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Las Palmas part of?
Osasuna vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Osasuna and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Osasuna vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 50 games and Las Palmas's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.34
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.14
1.00
Las Palmas xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 4W 1D 7L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.08 PPG, Las Palmas on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 0.67 PPG from their last 6 home games (1W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 2W 0D 4L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Las Palmas's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.83 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.67 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 1, Las Palmas have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2025: Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Las Palmas?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Osasuna 33% BTTS, Las Palmas 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Osasuna and 33% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 50% of games; Las Palmas in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Osasuna's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Las Palmas finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.14 xG and Las Palmas 1.00 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Las Palmas attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 38% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 32%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 50%, Las Palmas 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Las Palmas's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.08 PPG, Las Palmas 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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