Granada CF 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Granada CF welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Monday 22 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Granada CF's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Granada CF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Atletico Madrid have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Granada CF have won 1, Atletico Madrid 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Granada CF 1–3 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Atletico Madrid in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 55% versus Atletico Madrid 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 45% | Atletico Madrid 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.26 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.876 / defence 1.341 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.203 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.161. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.203, which lifts their away xG to 1.87. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atletico Madrid's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 20 games and Atletico Madrid's last 57.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 24% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 50%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.10 | Draw 3.96 | Atletico Madrid 1.99. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.87) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Granada CF's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Granada CF 70% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 30% (last 10 away games).

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