Celta Vigo 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.40 for Real Sociedad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Real Sociedad have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Celta Vigo's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Real Sociedad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 55% versus Real Sociedad 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 47% | Real Sociedad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 0.95 xG and Real Sociedad 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.835 / defence 1.063 | Real Sociedad attack 1.086 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.123. Data: 58 Celta Vigo games / 58 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 25% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 43%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Real Sociedad 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 50% | Real Sociedad 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 25% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Celta Vigo 0.95 / Real Sociedad 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.835 / def 1.063 | Real Sociedad attack 1.086 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Real Sociedad xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Celta Vigo 0 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 25% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
Record (5 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 2 | Real Sociedad 3W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (0.83) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.09x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
25%
3.97
32%
3.10
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.24
1.30
Real Sociedad xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.30 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 18D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.78 PPG from 58 outings (29W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.41 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 14W 18D 26L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.28 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
5
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 55%, Real Sociedad 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Celta Vigo) and 45% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 38%; Real Sociedad in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 48% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 45% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Celta Vigo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Celta Vigo 0-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.95 xG and Real Sociedad 1.30 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Real Sociedad attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 25% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 43%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 47%, Real Sociedad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.