Villarreal 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Villarreal face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Villarreal — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Villarreal have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Mallorca have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Mallorca have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Villarreal at 1.00 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Mallorca and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Villarreal 1–0 Mallorca — a Villarreal win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 60% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 59% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.57 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.169 / defence 1.383 | Mallorca attack 0.767 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.132. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 58 games and Mallorca's last 58.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.26 | Draw 3.52 | Mallorca 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 90% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Villarreal 1.57 / Mallorca 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.169 / def 1.383 | Mallorca attack 0.767 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Mallorca xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Mallorca kick off?
Villarreal vs Mallorca kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Villarreal 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Villarreal vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Mallorca part of?
Villarreal vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 44% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 58 games and Mallorca's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Mallorca xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.20 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Villarreal's recent record stands at 24W 11D 23L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 23L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.43 PPG, Mallorca on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 15W 4D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 5W 6D 18L across their last 29 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 17W 18D 23L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Mallorca away?
Villarreal's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.69 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won Villarreal 4-0 Mallorca.
Villarreal's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 5, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 69%, Mallorca 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Villarreal) and 38% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Villarreal's recent matches and 38% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Villarreal and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Villarreal's recent games and 38% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Villarreal's recent matches and 66% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.57 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.17 / defence 1.38 against Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 59%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.43 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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