Getafe 1-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Mallorca meet at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Getafe's home record at Estadio Coliseum: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mallorca (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Getafe lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 44% versus Mallorca 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 39% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.04 xG and Mallorca 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.758 / defence 1.188 | Mallorca attack 0.766 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.134. Getafe's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Getafe games / 75 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 35% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 35%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 30% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 35% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Getafe 1.04 / Mallorca 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.758 / def 1.188 | Mallorca attack 0.766 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Mallorca kick off?
Getafe vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Getafe 1 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Getafe vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Mallorca part of?
Getafe vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 35% chance of winning, Mallorca a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Getafe and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Getafe 2W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.76) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.77x) against Getafe's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.32
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.08
1.03
Mallorca xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Getafe and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Getafe and 1.03 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe come into this having played 75 games, going 20W 25D 30L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.16 PPG from 75 outings (21W 24D 30L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Getafe against 1.16 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Getafe's home form reads 15W 11D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.70 points per game from 37 outings (5W 11D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 20W 25D 30L in their last 75 games (1.13 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 21W 24D 30L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Mallorca away?
Getafe's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.51 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Getafe or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mallorca in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Getafe
2
Draws
4
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Mallorca have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 40%, Mallorca 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Getafe) and 35% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 35% of games; Mallorca in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Getafe's recent matches and 43% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Getafe's recent games and 35% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Mallorca tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Getafe 1-2 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.04 xG and Mallorca 1.03 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 35% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 35%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 39%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.13 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.