Las Palmas 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 44%, yet in-form Alaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Las Palmas have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estadio de Gran Canaria — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Alaves (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Las Palmas 1W, Alaves 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Las Palmas winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 38% versus Alaves 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 30% | Alaves 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.22 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.728 / defence 1.155 | Alaves attack 0.665 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.140. Las Palmas's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Las Palmas games / 37 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Alaves 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Las Palmas as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 40% | Alaves 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Las Palmas 1.22 / Alaves 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.728 / def 1.155 | Alaves attack 0.665 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Alaves xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Alaves kick off?
Las Palmas vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Las Palmas vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Alaves part of?
Las Palmas vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 44% chance of winning, Alaves a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Las Palmas and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Alaves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.73x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.67x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.40
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.10
0.88
Alaves xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 9D 18L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Alaves's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.22 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 9D 18L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Alaves have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Alaves away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.28 PPG; Alaves away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 44%, Alaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Las Palmas and 33% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 33% of games; Alaves in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 33% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Alaves tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Alaves in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.22 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Alaves attack 0.67 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 30%, Alaves 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.05 PPG, Alaves 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.