Mallorca 1-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mallorca face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Real Madrid at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mallorca haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Real Madrid haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Real Madrid away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Madrid — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Real Madrid have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Mallorca.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Real Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Madrid in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Real Madrid 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 29% | Real Madrid 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.21 xG and Real Madrid 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.887 / defence 0.927 | Real Madrid attack 1.254 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.201. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Mallorca games / 38 Real Madrid games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Real Madrid 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Mallorca 1.21 / Real Madrid 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.887 / def 0.927 | Real Madrid attack 1.254 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Real Madrid xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 32% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mallorca and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 5W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.53
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.61
1.40
Real Madrid xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.40 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca's recent record stands at 8W 16D 14L from 38 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. Mallorca haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 1L across 38 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. Real Madrid haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 6W 8D 5L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 13W 5D 1L across 19 trips, a 2.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.29 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Pre-Season
Real Madrid
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 8W 16D 14L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 29W 8D 1L in their last 38 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.37 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Real Madrid won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Real Madrid have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 42%, Real Madrid 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Mallorca) and 53% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Real Madrid in 47%; Mallorca have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mallorca's recent matches and 53% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Mallorca's recent games and 53% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Real Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.21 xG and Real Madrid 1.40 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Real Madrid attack 1.25 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Real Madrid 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Real Madrid's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.