Suwon City FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 38%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gangwon FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gangwon FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Suwon City FC over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Suwon City FC 0–2 Gangwon FC — a Gangwon FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 62% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Gangwon FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.829 / defence 1.275 | Gangwon FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.184. Gangwon FC's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon City FC's projected output up. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gangwon FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 43 games and Gangwon FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.66 | Draw 3.69 | Gangwon FC 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.46 / Gangwon FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.829 / def 1.275 | Gangwon FC attack 0.935 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Gangwon FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 38% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.94x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 43 games and Gangwon FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.69
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.41
Gangwon FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.41 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 22W 18D 38L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 21W 24D 33L from 78 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.12 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.27 PPG from their last 40 home games (14W 9D 17L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 9W 13D 18L from their last 40 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 38L in their last 78 games (1.08 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 21W 24D 33L in their last 78 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.27 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won Suwon City FC 4-0 Gangwon FC on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 September 2025: Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 72%, Gangwon FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Suwon City FC) and 38% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Suwon City FC's games and 45% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 38% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 55% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 35%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Gangwon FC 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.08 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.