Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet in-form Incheon United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Incheon United — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Incheon United's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 60% of Incheon United's (from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, Incheon United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 Incheon United — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Incheon United 38%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Gimcheon Sangmu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG and Incheon United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.981 | Incheon United attack 1.052 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.194. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 games and Incheon United's last 43.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63 | Draw 3.47 | Incheon United 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Incheon United (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 / Incheon United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / def 0.981 | Incheon United attack 1.052 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Incheon United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance of winning, Incheon United a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 games and Incheon United's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.47
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Incheon United xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.23 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 14D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.42 PPG from 40 outings (14W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Incheon United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across their last 20 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.20 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Incheon United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 16 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Incheon United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 45% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 45% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 70% of Incheon United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG and Incheon United 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Incheon United attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Incheon United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.