Jeonbuk Motors 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Suwon City FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Suwon City FC 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Jeonbuk Motors recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / defence 1.223 | Suwon City FC attack 0.968 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.252. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon City FC's projected output up. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 44 games and Suwon City FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.66 | Draw 3.89 | Suwon City FC 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 / Suwon City FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / def 1.223 | Suwon City FC attack 0.968 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.06x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.97x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 44 games and Suwon City FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.89
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.98
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.48 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 37W 19D 20L from 76 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 36L across 76 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 12D 7L from their last 36 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 8W 9D 19L across their last 36 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 games (1.71 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.75 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won Suwon City FC 0-6 Jeonbuk Motors on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 58%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 78% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Suwon City FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 38%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.