FC Seoul 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Seoul (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Seoul face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in FC Seoul's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours FC Seoul, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Suwon City FC — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2024, ended 3–0 with FC Seoul winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Seoul and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Seoul 59% and Suwon City FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 51% | Suwon City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.55 xG and Suwon City FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.086 / defence 0.951 | Suwon City FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.221. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 FC Seoul games / 64 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Seoul 1.55 / Suwon City FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.086 / def 0.951 | Suwon City FC attack 1.212 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Suwon City FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Seoul 4W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.09) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.21x) against FC Seoul's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.09
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.96
1.41
Suwon City FC xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.41 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 21D 21L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 23W 14D 32L from 69 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.20 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 6D 17L from 34 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 27W 21D 21L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 23W 14D 32L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.56 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 56%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 62% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Seoul's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Seoul's matches and 62% of Suwon City FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.55 xG and Suwon City FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Suwon City FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 51%, Suwon City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.48 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.