Al Shabab 1-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al Shabab have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taawon's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Taawon and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Al Shabab 0–3 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 54% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.39 xG and Al Taawon 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.029 / defence 0.831 | Al Taawon attack 0.956 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.482. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 44 games and Al Taawon's last 44.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.43 | Draw 3.62 | Al Taawon 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al Shabab 1.39 / Al Taawon 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.029 / def 0.831 | Al Taawon attack 0.956 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Taawon xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 41% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.96x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 44 games and Al Taawon's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.62
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.57
1.18
Al Taawon xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.18 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 9D 14L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 23W 11D 10L from 44 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.82 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 21 home games (13W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 11W 5D 5L from their last 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.55 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.05 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Al Shabab 3-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 38%, Al Taawon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Shabab) and 48% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al Taawon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 62% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Shabab and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Shabab's recent games and 48% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 67% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.39 xG and Al Taawon 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.03 / defence 0.83 against Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.64 PPG, Al Taawon 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.