Al-Raed 2-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 45%, yet in-form Al Wehda Club provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wehda Club (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wehda Club arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Raed, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al Wehda Club 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 70% | Al Wehda Club 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.83 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.934 / defence 1.154 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.882 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.482. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Raed games / 44 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 45% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wehda Club 3.23. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wehda Club (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al Wehda Club 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 45% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Raed 1.83 / Al Wehda Club 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.934 / def 1.154 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.882 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Raed 2 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 45% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.88x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.25
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.34
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.51 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 10D 23L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 14W 9D 21L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.16 for Al Wehda Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 6W 3D 12L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.18 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
2
Draws
1
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2025, when Al Wehda Club 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 62%, Al Wehda Club 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Al-Raed and 48% for Al Wehda Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Wehda Club in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 48% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Al-Raed's matches and 48% of Al Wehda Club's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Wehda Club 2-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.83 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 45% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 31%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 70%, Al Wehda Club 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.98 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.