Al Taawon 4-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Club Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al Taawon, 1.30 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Fayha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Fayha and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Fayha 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.924 / defence 0.823 | Al-Fayha attack 1.049 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Data: 45 Al Taawon games / 45 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 1.26 / Al-Fayha 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.924 / def 0.823 | Al-Fayha attack 1.049 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon 4 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.05x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.47
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.24 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 11D 10L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.16 PPG from 45 outings (12W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 11W 6D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 games (1.84 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.77 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Al Taawon, 64% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Taawon's games and 64% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fayha 4-1 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fayha attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al-Fayha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.