Al Okhdood 4-0 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al Orubah meet at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 31 October 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 2D 7L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Orubah (all games): 3W 1D 4L across 8 Pro League outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Okhdood, 1.25 for Al Orubah — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Orubah in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Orubah — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al Orubah 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al Orubah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.39 xG and Al Orubah 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.690 / defence 1.034 | Al Orubah attack 0.958 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.322. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al Okhdood games / 8 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 39% | Draw 26% | Al Orubah 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Al Orubah 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Orubah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 31 Oct 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 39% | Draw 26% | Al Orubah 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Okhdood 1.39 / Al Orubah 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.690 / def 1.034 | Al Orubah attack 0.958 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Orubah xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah kicked off at 15:10 on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Al Okhdood 4 - 0 Al Orubah.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 39% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Orubah in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Al Orubah (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.69x the league average against Al Orubah's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.96x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.88
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.70
1.31
Al Orubah xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.31 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Orubah, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Orubah by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Orubah's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Orubah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Orubah away?
Al Orubah's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.25 PPG; Al Orubah away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Orubah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Al Orubah 0-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Orubah?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 25%, Al Orubah 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Okhdood and 100% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 75% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Okhdood's matches and 100% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Okhdood run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Orubah 4-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.39 xG and Al Orubah 1.31 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Orubah landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.69 / defence 1.03 against Al Orubah attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 39% | Draw 26% | Al Orubah 35%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al Orubah 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Orubah's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Orubah arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Al Okhdood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.