Al Orubah 0-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Orubah face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Shabab travel to Al-Jouf University Stadium to take on Al Orubah in Pro League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 7 matches, Al Orubah stand at 3W 1D 3L — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%).
Across their last 10 games, Al Shabab have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Shabab away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.43 PPG (Al Orubah) versus 1.50 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Al Orubah in-play tendencies (last 7 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 7 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 43% versus Al Shabab 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 57% | Al Shabab 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.758 / defence 0.859 | Al Shabab attack 0.810 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.299. Al Orubah's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Al Shabab bring a tight defence (rating 0.732, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Orubah's projected output down. Data: built from Al Orubah's last 7 games and Al Shabab's last 41.
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 30% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 3.30 | Draw 2.95 | Al Shabab 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al Orubah's lower xG of 0.81 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Orubah's last 7 games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Orubah 43% (last 7 games) | Al Shabab 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 30% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Al Orubah 0.81 / Al Shabab 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.758 / def 0.859 | Al Shabab attack 0.810 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al Shabab xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Orubah vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al Orubah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Thursday 24 October 2024 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al Shabab?
Al Orubah 0 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Orubah vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 30% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Al Orubah and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Al Orubah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Orubah's attack at 0.76x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Orubah's last 7 games and Al Shabab's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
30%
3.30
34%
2.95
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
1.71
0.90
Al Shabab xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 16.4 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Orubah vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Al Orubah and 0.90 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Shabab's form line: 4W 0D 3L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Orubah on 1.43 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Orubah are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 0.86 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 29%.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Orubah (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Orubah
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Al Orubah vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al Orubah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Have Al Orubah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 13 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Orubah vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Shabab?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Orubah have won 0, Al Shabab have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2025: Al Shabab 6-0 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 43%, Al Shabab 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Orubah) and 29% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 43%; Al Orubah have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Shabab in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Orubah vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Orubah and Al Shabab matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 29% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Orubah and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Orubah's recent games and 29% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 43% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Orubah 0-3 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 0.90 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Orubah fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Al Shabab attack 0.81 / defence 0.73, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 30% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 36%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 57%, Al Shabab 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.43 PPG, Al Shabab 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.