Al Khaleej Saihat 4-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Raed at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 November 2024 at 14:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Khaleej Saihat at 1.00 PPG versus Al-Raed's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Raed 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 52% versus Al-Raed 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Al-Raed 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.80 xG and Al-Raed 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.672 / defence 1.031 | Al-Raed attack 1.180 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.290. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 42 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 19% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Raed (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Raed 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 19% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.80 / Al-Raed 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.672 / def 1.031 | Al-Raed attack 1.180 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Raed xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kicked off at 14:35 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat 4 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 19% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.67x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
19%
5.22
25%
3.95
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.38
1.57
Al-Raed xG
5.22
19%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
4%
25.14
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 14.6 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.57 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 12W 12D 18L from 42 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.90 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, Al-Raed have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al-Raed 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 48% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 33%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Raed in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 57% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 48% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Raed 4-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.80 xG and Al-Raed 1.57 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.67 / defence 1.03 against Al-Raed attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 19% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 56%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Khaleej Saihat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 43%, Al-Raed 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.