Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ettifaq away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have the stronger record — 3 wins to Al-Fayha's 0, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Al-Fayha 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.

Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Ettifaq 45%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Fayha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.709 / defence 0.873 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.936 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.375. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 42 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 42.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.49 | Draw 3.17 | Al-Ettifaq 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ettifaq 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 away games).

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