Zenit 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zenit welcome Akhmat to Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Zenit have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Akhmat away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Zenit, 1 for Akhmat and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2022, ended Zenit 1–2 Akhmat — a Akhmat win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 50% versus Akhmat 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 60% | Akhmat 62%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.86 xG and Akhmat 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.340 / defence 1.028 | Akhmat attack 0.806 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.072. Zenit carry an above-average attack rating of 1.340 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Zenit's last 42 games and Akhmat's last 42.
Result probabilities: Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.67 | Draw 4.32 | Akhmat 5.85. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Zenit's last 10 home games and Akhmat's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zenit 60% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Zenit 1.86 / Akhmat 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.340 / def 1.028 | Akhmat attack 0.806 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Zenit (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Akhmat xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 60% chance of winning, Akhmat a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.34) and Akhmat's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 42 games and Akhmat's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.32
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Akhmat xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
37.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Zenit and 0.89 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 28W 9D 5L from 42 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 16L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 16W 1D 3L from their last 20 home games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 10W 3D 7L across their last 20 away games, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 28W 9D 5L in their last 42 games (2.21 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.45 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Akhmat in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won Akhmat 1-5 Zenit.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 50%, Akhmat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Zenit and 65% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and Akhmat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zenit's games and 60% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zenit and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zenit's matches and 65% of Akhmat's.
Do Zenit and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Zenit's recent matches and 85% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 2-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.86 xG and Akhmat 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.34 / defence 1.03 against Akhmat attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 60%, Akhmat 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.