Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sporting CP face Benfica.

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Match Analysis

Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 21:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Sporting CP — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Sporting CP have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.80 PPG (Sporting CP) versus 2.50 (Benfica). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sporting CP have won 1, Benfica 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Sporting CP 1–2 Benfica — a Benfica win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sporting CP trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Benfica trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 53% versus Benfica 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sporting CP 73% | Benfica 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.80 xG and Benfica 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.964 / defence 0.826 | Benfica attack 1.201 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.223. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack rating of 1.964 — their 2.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.21. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 60 games and Benfica's last 61.

Result probabilities: Sporting CP 70% | Draw 16% | Benfica 14%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.42 | Draw 6.34 | Benfica 7.22. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (70%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.80 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 70% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 60% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 30% (last 10 away games).

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