Chaves 2-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Portimonense at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Portimonense have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chaves at 0.80 PPG versus Portimonense's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chaves have won 1, Portimonense 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Portimonense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Portimonense in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Portimonense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Portimonense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.73 xG and Portimonense 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.847 / defence 1.386 | Portimonense attack 0.843 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.221. Portimonense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Chaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Chaves games / 61 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 45% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 32%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Portimonense 3.12. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chaves are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Portimonense 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 45% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Chaves 1.73 / Portimonense 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.847 / def 1.386 | Portimonense attack 0.843 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Chaves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Portimonense xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Portimonense kick off?
Chaves vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Portimonense?
Chaves 2 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Chaves vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Portimonense part of?
Chaves vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 45% chance of winning, Portimonense a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chaves and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Portimonense?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 2W.
What form are Chaves and Portimonense in?
Chaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Portimonense (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chaves's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Portimonense's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.21
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.16
1.43
Portimonense xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Chaves and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Chaves and 1.43 for Portimonense, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 17D 28L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense's form line: 16W 9D 36L from 61 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.07 PPG, Portimonense on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
On the road, Portimonense have gone 7W 2D 21L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.85 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 16W 9D 36L in their last 61 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Portimonense away?
Chaves's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.17 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Portimonense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portimonense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chaves's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Portimonense have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Chaves 2-3 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Portimonense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chaves) and 47% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chaves's recent matches and 33% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Chaves's recent games and 47% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Portimonense tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portimonense defy the odds to beat Chaves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Chaves 2-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.73 xG and Portimonense 1.43 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Portimonense outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Portimonense attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 45% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 32%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Portimonense 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.07 PPG, Portimonense 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.