Stal Mielec 1-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stal Mielec face Legia Warszawa.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stal Mielec's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Stal Mielec have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Legia Warszawa have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Stal Mielec, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Stal Mielec 3–1 Legia Warszawa — a Stal Mielec win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 41% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 40% | Legia Warszawa 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.06 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.795 / defence 0.708 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.130 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.165. Stal Mielec's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Stal Mielec have a tight defence (rating 0.708), which is pulling Legia Warszawa's projected output down. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 63 games and Legia Warszawa's last 63.

Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 36% | Draw 34% | Legia Warszawa 30%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.74 | Draw 2.94 | Legia Warszawa 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 50% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games).

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