Gornik Zabrze 4-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Gornik Zabrze's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of ŁKS Łódź's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for ŁKS Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 5–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 55% versus ŁKS Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 48% | ŁKS Łódź 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.15 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.041 / defence 0.883 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.812 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.114. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Gornik Zabrze games / 29 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 67% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 11%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | ŁKS Łódź 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 40% | ŁKS Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 67% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.15 / ŁKS Łódź 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.041 / def 0.883 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.812 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.80
ŁKS Łódź xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź?
Gornik Zabrze 4 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 67% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 0 | ŁKS Łódź 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.04) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.81x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.63
11%
8.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.95
0.80
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
8.88
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
76.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.80 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 14W 6D 9L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
ŁKS Łódź's form line: 5W 6D 18L from 29 games, 0.72 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.93 PPG from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L).
On the road, ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 1D 12L from 14 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.97 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 18L in their last 29 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.93 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
0
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Gornik Zabrze 4-1 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 36%, ŁKS Łódź 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gornik Zabrze) and 64% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games; ŁKS Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 43% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 64% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 4-1 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat ŁKS Łódź 4-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.15 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.80 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 67% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 11%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, ŁKS Łódź 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.