Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Warta Poznań at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.50 (Warta Poznań). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Warta Poznań and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Warta Poznań 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Warta Poznań 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG and Warta Poznań 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.987 / defence 1.000 | Warta Poznań attack 0.893 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.118. Data: 63 Piast Gliwice games / 63 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Warta Poznań 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Warta Poznań 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.40 / Warta Poznań 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.987 / def 1.000 | Warta Poznań attack 0.893 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Warta Poznań xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Warta Poznań xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.00 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 22D 20L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 20W 19D 24L from 63 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.35 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.08 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Warta Poznań away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.39 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 48%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 32% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 39%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 32% of games; Warta Poznań in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 32% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Warta Poznań 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG and Warta Poznań 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Warta Poznań attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.35 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.