Viking 1-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Viking's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.19 xG and Fredrikstad 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.023 / defence 0.895 | Fredrikstad attack 0.977 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: built from Viking's last 33 games and Fredrikstad's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.81 | Draw 3.63 | Fredrikstad 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Viking 33 games, Fredrikstad 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Viking 1.19 / Fredrikstad 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.023 / def 0.895 | Fredrikstad attack 0.977 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Fredrikstad xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does Viking vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Viking vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Viking 1 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Viking vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Fredrikstad part of?
Viking vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 36% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Viking and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Viking vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.02x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.98x) against Viking's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 33 games and Fredrikstad's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.63
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Viking xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Fredrikstad xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Viking and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Viking and 1.22 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Viking (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Viking and Fredrikstad, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Viking have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 3-0 Fredrikstad on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 4, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Viking and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Viking and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Viking and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.19 xG and Fredrikstad 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Fredrikstad attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.