Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 1D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.015 / defence 0.988 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.807 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: 33 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 3 KFUM Oslo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | KFUM Oslo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 / KFUM Oslo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.015 / def 0.988 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.807 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
KFUM Oslo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.81x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.76
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.51
1.11
KFUM Oslo xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.11 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when KFUM Oslo 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. KFUM Oslo outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.