Fredrikstad 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 0.97 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.707 / defence 1.172 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.818 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.343. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Fredrikstad games / 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 28% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 28% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Fredrikstad 0.97 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.707 / def 1.172 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.818 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad 2 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 28% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.71x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.82x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
28%
3.57
28%
3.54
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.26
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.29 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 0.97 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 28% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.