Tromso 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 45%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Tromso welcome Haugesund to Romssa Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tromso have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Tromso have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Tromso have won 3, Haugesund 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Tromso 2–1 Haugesund — a Tromso win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Haugesund trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 70% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 60% | Haugesund 55%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Tromso recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.101 / defence 1.258 | Haugesund attack 1.014 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.347. Tromso's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haugesund's projected output up. Data: built from Tromso's last 31 games and Haugesund's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 31% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 45%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.21 | Draw 4.26 | Haugesund 2.20. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 70% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Tromso 31 games, Haugesund 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 31% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Tromso 1.39 / Haugesund 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.101 / def 1.258 | Haugesund attack 1.014 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Haugesund xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Tromso 0 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 31% chance of winning, Haugesund a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 31 games and Haugesund's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
31%
3.21
23%
4.26
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.10
1.72
Haugesund xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Tromso and 1.72 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 17D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
Tromso (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.93 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Tromso have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won Haugesund 3-0 Tromso.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 70%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Tromso) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Haugesund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 47% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Tromso and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tromso's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Tromso 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Tromso 0-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.10 / defence 1.26 against Haugesund attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 31% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 45%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 60%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.