Haugesund 0-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 50%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lillestrom — this Haugesund vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lillestrom travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Haugesund's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lillestrom — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Lillestrom have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Lillestrom 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Lillestrom have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Haugesund.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Haugesund 0–1 Lillestrom — a Lillestrom win.
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Lillestrom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Lillestrom 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haugesund surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Lillestrom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.73 xG and Lillestrom 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.039 / defence 0.977 | Lillestrom attack 0.908 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: built from Haugesund's last 31 games and Lillestrom's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.02 | Draw 4.22 | Lillestrom 3.74. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 50% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Haugesund 31 games, Lillestrom 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 2 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Haugesund 1.73 / Lillestrom 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.039 / def 0.977 | Lillestrom attack 0.908 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lillestrom xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Haugesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 2) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 50% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 31 games and Lillestrom's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.22
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.94
1.21
Lillestrom xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.21 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 29W 9D 22L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 11W 6D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
Haugesund (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Haugesund vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won Haugesund 0-3 Lillestrom.
Haugesund's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
0
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2024: Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 67%, Lillestrom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 63% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do Haugesund and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Haugesund's recent matches and 70% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.73 xG and Lillestrom 1.21 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Lillestrom attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.