Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Haugesund at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.70 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 52% versus Bodo/Glimt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 59% | Bodo/Glimt 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.72 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.148 / defence 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.030 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Haugesund games / 44 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Bodo/Glimt 5.26. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.72 / Bodo/Glimt 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.148 / def 0.767 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.030 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 52% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.15x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.41
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.70
0.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.98 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 10D 17L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.41 PPG from 44 outings (33W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.10 points per game from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 7D 4L in their last 44 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.90 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 48%, Bodo/Glimt 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haugesund and 76% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Haugesund's games and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 76% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.72 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 52% | Draw 29% | Bodo/Glimt 19%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 59%, Bodo/Glimt 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.