ODD Ballklubb 4-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.70 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Haugesund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for Haugesund and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Haugesund — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 57% versus Haugesund 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Haugesund 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.066 / defence 1.115 | Haugesund attack 0.983 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.230. Data: 44 ODD Ballklubb games / 44 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 4.35. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.07 / Haugesund 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.066 / def 1.115 | Haugesund attack 0.983 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Haugesund xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
ODD Ballklubb 4 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.07x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.98x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.92
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.42
1.35
Haugesund xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
3%
34.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.35 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 8D 18L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 17W 10D 17L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.39 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.39 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Haugesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.76 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Haugesund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Haugesund have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 67%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ODD Ballklubb and 52% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 52% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 52% of Haugesund's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Haugesund 4-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 23%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Haugesund 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.41 PPG, Haugesund 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.