Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Mjondalen to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 2D 1L at Aspmyra Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Mjondalen, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Mjondalen trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 64% versus Mjondalen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 77% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.403 / defence 0.980 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Bodo/Glimt games / 43 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Mjondalen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Mjondalen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.13 / Mjondalen 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.403 / def 0.980 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mjondalen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 59% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.40x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.05
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.21
1.08
Mjondalen xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
51.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.08 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 33W 7D 4L from 44 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 24L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 19W 2D 1L from 22 games — 2.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 7D 4L in their last 44 games (2.41 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Mjondalen away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.68 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Mjondalen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Bodo/Glimt) and 41% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mjondalen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 54% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 41% of Mjondalen's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.98 against Mjondalen attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 59% | Draw 25% | Mjondalen 16%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 77%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.