Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.62 PPG across 8 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.62 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 38% versus Lillestrom 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodo/Glimt 25% | Lillestrom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.72 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.555 / defence 0.926 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Bodo/Glimt games / 8 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Lillestrom 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 56% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.72 / Lillestrom 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.555 / def 0.926 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lillestrom xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 75% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.55) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.83x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.01
8%
11.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.60
0.88
Lillestrom xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
11.82
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
7%
15.15
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
179.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.88 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 1.62 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Bodo/Glimt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.25 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 0-5 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 50%, Lillestrom 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (Lillestrom).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 75% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 50% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.72 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.55 / defence 0.93 against Lillestrom attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Lillestrom 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 25%, Lillestrom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodo/Glimt 1.62 PPG, Lillestrom 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.