Brann 1-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Lillestrom meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.64 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.893 / defence 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 0.859 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.134. Data: 40 Brann games / 7 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Lillestrom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Brann 1.64 / Lillestrom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.893 / def 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 0.859 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Brann (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lillestrom xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Lillestrom kick off?
Brann vs Lillestrom kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Brann 1 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Brann vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Lillestrom part of?
Brann vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 44% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Brann and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Brann home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.86x) against Brann's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.58
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Brann xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Lillestrom xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Brann and 1.26 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brann
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Lillestrom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Lillestrom?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Brann and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Brann and Lillestrom drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.64 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Lillestrom attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.