Molde vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Molde welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aker Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Molde — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Molde carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Molde register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Molde, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2020, ended 4–1 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 67% and ODD Ballklubb 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 87% | ODD Ballklubb 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.21 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.379 / defence 0.872 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.109 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Molde games / 39 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Molde (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | ODD Ballklubb 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Molde 2.21 / ODD Ballklubb 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.379 / def 0.872 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.109 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Molde (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Molde vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Molde vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 61% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Molde and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Molde and ODD Ballklubb in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Molde's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.40
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Molde xG
Total xG
3.31
1.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
55.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Molde and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Molde and 1.10 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Molde come into this having played 39 games, going 26W 4D 9L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (17W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Molde's home form reads 16W 1D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Molde are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.67 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 26W 4D 9L in their last 39 games (2.10 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 7D 15L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Molde's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.45 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Molde or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Molde and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Molde
0
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 8, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and ODD Ballklubb?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, ODD Ballklubb 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Molde and 55% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Molde's matches and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Molde and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Molde and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.21 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.10 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 2.2 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.38 / defence 0.87 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 87%, ODD Ballklubb 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.