Vitesse 0-2 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Vitesse take on GO Ahead Eagles.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vitesse at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GO Ahead Eagles have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, GO Ahead Eagles are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Vitesse 1–5 GO Ahead Eagles — a GO Ahead Eagles win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
GO Ahead Eagles — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 45% versus GO Ahead Eagles 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 53% | GO Ahead Eagles 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 0.96 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.719 / defence 0.869 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.841 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.445. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Vitesse's last 53 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 53.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 37% | GO Ahead Eagles 34%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.46 | Draw 2.68 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.96. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitesse 40% (last 10 home games) | GO Ahead Eagles 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 20 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 37% | GO Ahead Eagles 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Vitesse 0.96 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.719 / def 0.869 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.841 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.05
GO Ahead Eagles xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Vitesse 0 - 2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.72x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GO Ahead Eagles's attack (0.84x) against Vitesse's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 53 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
37%
2.68
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.01
1.05
GO Ahead Eagles xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.1 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.05 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse's recent record stands at 13W 13D 27L from 53 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
GO Ahead Eagles, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 20L across 53 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Vitesse against 1.26 for GO Ahead Eagles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 6W 9D 11L from their last 26 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GO Ahead Eagles's away record stands at 5W 8D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.47 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Vitesse (Home) vs GO Ahead Eagles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 13W 13D 27L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 17W 16D 20L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Vitesse's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.04 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
GO Ahead Eagles have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GO Ahead Eagles won GO Ahead Eagles 5-1 Vitesse on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
3
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 2, GO Ahead Eagles have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2024: Vitesse 0-2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 46%, GO Ahead Eagles 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vitesse) and 46% (GO Ahead Eagles).
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Vitesse have failed to score in 35% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs GO Ahead Eagles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vitesse's recent matches and 58% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vitesse's recent games and 46% of GO Ahead Eagles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and GO Ahead Eagles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Vitesse's recent matches and 77% of GO Ahead Eagles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GO Ahead Eagles cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat Vitesse 0-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.96 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.05 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. GO Ahead Eagles outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.72 / defence 0.87 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.84 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 37% | GO Ahead Eagles 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual GO Ahead Eagles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 53%, GO Ahead Eagles 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.98 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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