GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GO Ahead Eagles face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PEC Zwolle travel to De Adelaarshorst to take on GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GO Ahead Eagles's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, PEC Zwolle have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 70% of PEC Zwolle's (from GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, GO Ahead Eagles have won 2, PEC Zwolle 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 PEC Zwolle — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 56% versus PEC Zwolle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 52% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.132 / defence 1.114 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.189 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.439. Data: built from GO Ahead Eagles's last 54 games and PEC Zwolle's last 20.
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.75 | Draw 4.01 | PEC Zwolle 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GO Ahead Eagles 60% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 21 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 / PEC Zwolle 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.132 / def 1.114 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.189 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.91
PEC Zwolle xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 36% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GO Ahead Eagles's attack rating (1.13) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GO Ahead Eagles's last 54 games and PEC Zwolle's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.01
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.75
1.91
PEC Zwolle xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.91 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 16D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.83 PPG from 54 outings (30W 9D 15L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GO Ahead Eagles's home form reads 12W 8D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.74 points per game from their last 27 away games (14W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 18W 16D 20L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 9D 15L in their last 54 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.63 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.74 PPG.
Have GO Ahead Eagles or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles won GO Ahead Eagles 5-0 PEC Zwolle.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
4
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: PEC Zwolle 4-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 56%, PEC Zwolle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for GO Ahead Eagles and 74% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 63% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 74% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 78% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 21, as GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.91 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 0.8 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 52%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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