Utrecht 4-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Utrecht welcome FC Volendam to Stadion Galgenwaard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Utrecht have gone 2W 8D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Galgenwaard this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Utrecht have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Utrecht have won 1, FC Volendam 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Utrecht in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 55% versus FC Volendam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 51% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.70 xG and FC Volendam 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.911 / defence 1.004 | FC Volendam attack 0.845 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.454. Data: 53 Utrecht games / 53 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 46% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 4.00. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 80% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 46% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Utrecht 1.70 / FC Volendam 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.911 / def 1.004 | FC Volendam attack 0.845 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Volendam xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Utrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Utrecht 4 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Utrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Utrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 46% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Utrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Utrecht and FC Volendam in?
Utrecht (all comps): 2W-8D-0L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Utrecht's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.40
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.94
1.23
FC Volendam xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
22.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Utrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.23 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utrecht come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 15D 18L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.91 PPG from 53 outings (13W 9D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Utrecht's home form reads 9W 9D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.46 points per game from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.15 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 9D 31L in their last 53 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
Utrecht's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.38 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and FC Volendam runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Utrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Utrecht
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 62%, FC Volendam 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Utrecht) and 69% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utrecht's games and 62% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Utrecht's matches and 69% of FC Volendam's.
Do Utrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat FC Volendam 4-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.70 xG and FC Volendam 1.23 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against FC Volendam attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 46% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 25%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 51%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.