Utrecht 1-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utrecht have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Utrecht, 2.10 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, NEC Nijmegen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Utrecht, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 52% versus NEC Nijmegen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 49% | NEC Nijmegen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.00 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.128 / defence 0.913 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.267 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.403. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Utrecht games / 59 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 46% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 30%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 3.33. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 46% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Utrecht 2.00 / NEC Nijmegen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.128 / def 0.913 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.267 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Utrecht 1 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 46% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): Utrecht 2W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen in?
Utrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Utrecht's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.27x) against Utrecht's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.18
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.62
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.62 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 24W 16D 19L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 18W 24D 17L from 59 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Utrecht against 1.32 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 12D 9L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.56 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 24D 17L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Utrecht's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.55 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Utrecht or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Utrecht
2
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 6, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 59%, NEC Nijmegen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Utrecht) and 48% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Utrecht's recent matches and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Utrecht's recent games and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out NEC Nijmegen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.00 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.27 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 46% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 30%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 49%, NEC Nijmegen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.49 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.