Heerenveen 2-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Heerenveen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Heerenveen welcome Feyenoord to Abe Lenstra Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Heerenveen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heerenveen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feyenoord stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Feyenoord's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Feyenoord have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Heerenveen.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Heerenveen 1–6 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Feyenoord trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 52% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 66% | Feyenoord 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Heerenveen surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Feyenoord have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.21 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.053 / defence 0.979 | Feyenoord attack 1.399 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.403. Feyenoord bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Heerenveen's projected output down. Feyenoord have an above-average attack rating of 1.399, which lifts their away xG to 1.92. Data: built from Heerenveen's last 59 games and Feyenoord's last 59.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 22% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 53%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 4.46 | Draw 4.00 | Feyenoord 1.90. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.21 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Heerenveen's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Heerenveen 40% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 22% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Heerenveen 1.21 / Feyenoord 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.053 / def 0.979 | Feyenoord attack 1.399 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heerenveen vs Feyenoord FAQs
What time does Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Heerenveen 2 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord part of?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 22% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heerenveen and Feyenoord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heerenveen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Heerenveen's last 59 games and Feyenoord's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
22%
4.46
25%
4.00
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.92
Feyenoord xG
4.46
22%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
3%
30.53
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.92 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 12D 26L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Feyenoord's form line: 43W 12D 4L from 59 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 4D 13L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 22W 5D 2L from their last 29 away games — 2.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.44 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
Heerenveen (Home) vs Feyenoord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Form FAQs
What form are Heerenveen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 21W 12D 26L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 43W 12D 4L in their last 59 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.38 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won Feyenoord 6-1 Heerenveen.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
2
Draws
6
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Heerenveen vs Feyenoord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Heerenveen have won 2, Feyenoord have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Feyenoord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Heerenveen 5-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 62%, Feyenoord 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Heerenveen and 69% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heerenveen and Feyenoord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heerenveen's games and 66% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Heerenveen and Feyenoord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Heerenveen's matches and 69% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heerenveen and Feyenoord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 93% of Feyenoord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Heerenveen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heerenveen 2-3 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.21 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 22% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 53%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 66%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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