Feyenoord 4-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utrecht make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Feyenoord's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Feyenoord at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Utrecht have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Utrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 0.50 PPG lead over Utrecht (2.40 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Utrecht managing 0 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Feyenoord 5–1 Utrecht — a Feyenoord win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 57% versus Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 63% | Utrecht 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.41 xG and Utrecht 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.179 / defence 0.669 | Utrecht attack 0.755 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.352. Utrecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.749, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Feyenoord's projected output down. Utrecht's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Feyenoord have a tight defence (rating 0.669), which is pulling Utrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 60 games and Utrecht's last 60.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.87 | Draw 3.39 | Utrecht 5.89. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 40% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Feyenoord 1.41 / Utrecht 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.179 / def 0.669 | Utrecht attack 0.755 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Utrecht xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Utrecht kick off?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Feyenoord 4 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Feyenoord vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Utrecht part of?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 54% chance of winning, Utrecht a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Feyenoord and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Feyenoord vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.18) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.76x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 60 games and Utrecht's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
54%
1.87
29%
3.39
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.10
0.68
Utrecht xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.68 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord come into this having played 60 games, going 44W 12D 4L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (25W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feyenoord's home form reads 21W 7D 2L across their last 30 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Utrecht away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Utrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Feyenoord and Utrecht, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Feyenoord have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 5W 0D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
1
Draws
1
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 8, Utrecht have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 47%, Utrecht 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Feyenoord) and 53% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Utrecht in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 47% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Feyenoord's matches and 53% of Utrecht's.
Do Feyenoord and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 70% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Utrecht 4-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.41 xG and Utrecht 0.68 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.18 / defence 0.67 against Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 54% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 17%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 63%, Utrecht 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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