Almere City FC 0-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 50% versus AZ Alkmaar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 48% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.07 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.087 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.035 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.450. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Almere City FC games / 54 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | AZ Alkmaar 2.08. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | AZ Alkmaar 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Almere City FC 1.07 / AZ Alkmaar 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.799 / def 1.087 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.035 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Almere City FC 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.80x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.03x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.42
29%
3.42
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 25W 13D 16L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 30W 12D 12L from 54 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.89 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 5D 6L from 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 12D 12L in their last 54 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.65 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
2
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 54%, AZ Alkmaar 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Almere City FC) and 62% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Almere City FC's games and 58% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 0-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.07 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 48%, AZ Alkmaar 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.63 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.