Willem II 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Jong AZ at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 7W 2D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 2.00 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Willem II, 0 for Jong AZ and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 61% and Jong AZ 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 59% | Jong AZ 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.22 xG and Jong AZ 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.213 / defence 0.840 | Jong AZ attack 0.841 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: 71 Willem II games / 71 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 66% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 14%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 66% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 2.22 / Jong AZ 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.213 / def 0.840 | Jong AZ attack 0.841 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Willem II (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jong AZ xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong AZ kick off?
Willem II vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Willem II 4 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Willem II vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong AZ part of?
Willem II vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 66% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.21x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
66%
1.53
20%
4.91
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.17
0.95
Jong AZ xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
65.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Willem II and 0.95 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 40W 18D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 28W 16D 27L from 71 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.26 PPG from 35 outings (25W 4D 6L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 9W 7D 19L from 35 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.58 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 62%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 40W 18D 13L in their last 71 games (1.94 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 28W 16D 27L in their last 71 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong AZ away?
Willem II's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.26 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Willem II or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, Jong AZ have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong AZ?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 63%, Jong AZ 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Willem II and 66% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong AZ in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Willem II's games and 66% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 66% of Jong AZ's.
Do Willem II and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong AZ 4-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.22 xG and Jong AZ 0.95 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against Jong AZ attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 66% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 14%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 59%, Jong AZ 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.