Emmen 1-3 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
MVV (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Emmen against 1.40 for MVV. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Emmen 2W, MVV 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus MVV 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 56% | MVV 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.72 xG and MVV 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.935 / defence 1.035 | MVV attack 1.025 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: 33 Emmen games / 71 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | MVV 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 30% | MVV 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Emmen 1.72 / MVV 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.935 / def 1.035 | MVV attack 1.025 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
MVV xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs MVV kick off?
Emmen vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs MVV?
Emmen 1 - 3 MVV.
Where is Emmen vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs MVV part of?
Emmen vs MVV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 44% chance of winning, MVV a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Emmen and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Emmen and MVV in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.94x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (1.02x) against Emmen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.99
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.14
1.42
MVV xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Emmen and 1.42 for MVV, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 21W 16D 34L from 71 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 29L across 71 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Emmen against 1.44 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 12W 11D 12L from 35 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 11W 5D 19L across 35 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.65 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 63%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and MVV in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 21W 16D 34L in their last 71 games (1.11 PPG), while MVV have gone 30W 12D 29L in their last 71 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or MVV away?
Emmen's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.34 PPG; MVV away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 7-1 on 10 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Emmen 2-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and MVV?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, MVV 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Emmen) and 74% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Emmen's recent matches and 63% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Emmen's matches and 74% of MVV's.
Do Emmen and MVV tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, MVV in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Emmen 1-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.72 xG and MVV 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against MVV attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 56%, MVV 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.11 PPG, MVV 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.