MVV 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Willem II at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Geusselt — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Geusselt. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Willem II's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Willem II — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, MVV have won 1, Willem II 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 65% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 72% | Willem II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.25 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.122 / defence 1.001 | Willem II attack 1.169 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.417. Willem II's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 72 MVV games / 72 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 28% | Draw 26% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Willem II 2.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: MVV 40% | Willem II 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 28% | Draw 26% | Willem II 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG MVV 1.25 / Willem II 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.122 / def 1.001 | Willem II attack 1.169 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Willem II (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Willem II xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Willem II kick off?
MVV vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Willem II?
MVV 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is MVV vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Willem II part of?
MVV vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both MVV and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 2W.
What form are MVV and Willem II in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.92
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
MVV xG
Total xG
2.90
1.66
Willem II xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
5%
18.65
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are MVV and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for MVV and 1.66 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 32W 12D 30L from 74 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 41W 19D 14L across 74 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 20W 7D 10L from 37 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 15W 14D 8L across 37 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.93 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Willem II in 62%.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Willem II in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 32W 12D 30L in their last 74 games (1.46 PPG), while Willem II have gone 41W 19D 14L in their last 74 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Willem II away?
MVV's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.81 PPG; Willem II away: 1.59 PPG.
Have MVV or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Willem II won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
MVV
2
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Willem II have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 65%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (MVV) and 49% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of MVV's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of MVV's matches and 49% of Willem II's.
Do MVV and Willem II tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 35, as MVV and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.25 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Willem II attack 1.17 / defence 0.68, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 28% | Draw 26% | Willem II 46%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 72%, Willem II 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.