Juventus 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Juventus face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Juventus have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Udinese's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 1.50 PPG lead over Udinese (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Juventus, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Udinese — Udinese have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Juventus 3–0 Udinese — a Juventus win.
The head-to-head data gives Juventus an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 34% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Udinese 49%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Juventus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.61 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.029 / defence 0.683 | Udinese attack 0.866 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.119. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.683), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 61 games and Udinese's last 61.
Result probabilities: Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.70 | Draw 3.63 | Udinese 7.34. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (59%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Juventus 1.61 / Udinese 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.029 / def 0.683 | Udinese attack 0.866 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Juventus (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Udinese kick off?
Juventus vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 12 February 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Juventus 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Juventus vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Udinese part of?
Juventus vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 59% chance of winning, Udinese a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Juventus and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Juventus vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.03x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.87x) against Juventus's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 61 games and Udinese's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
59%
1.70
28%
3.63
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.27
0.66
Udinese xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
3%
36.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juventus and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Juventus and 0.66 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Juventus have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 38W 11D 12L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 13W 26D 22L from 61 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 30 home games (21W 6D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 6W 10D 14L from their last 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.15 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Juventus (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Juventus vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Udinese in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 38W 11D 12L in their last 61 games (2.05 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 26D 22L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Udinese away?
Juventus's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.30 PPG; Udinese away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Juventus or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Juventus have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won Udinese 0-3 Juventus on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Juventus
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 8, Udinese have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Juventus and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Udinese?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 37%, Udinese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Juventus) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Udinese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventus's recent matches and 47% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Juventus's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Juventus's recent matches and 57% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Juventus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Juventus 0-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.61 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.03 / defence 0.68 against Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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