Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fiorentina's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Frosinone's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fiorentina, 0 for Frosinone and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 50% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | Frosinone 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.10 xG and Frosinone 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.007 / defence 0.883 | Frosinone attack 0.789 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.113. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Fiorentina games / 23 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 67% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 11%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Frosinone 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Frosinone 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 67% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Fiorentina 2.10 / Frosinone 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.007 / def 0.883 | Frosinone attack 0.789 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Frosinone xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Frosinone kick off?
Fiorentina vs Frosinone kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Fiorentina 5 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Fiorentina vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Frosinone part of?
Fiorentina vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 67% chance of winning, Frosinone a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fiorentina and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Frosinone in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.79x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 60/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.59
11%
8.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.88
0.78
Frosinone xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
8.77
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
1%
71.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.78 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 25W 15D 20L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 29W 13D 18L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.67 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.55 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Frosinone away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.72 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fiorentina
1
Draws
0
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 1, Frosinone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Frosinone?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 52%, Frosinone 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Fiorentina) and 48% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Frosinone in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fiorentina's games and 59% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Fiorentina's recent games and 48% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Frosinone tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Frosinone 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.10 xG and Frosinone 0.78 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Frosinone attack 0.79 / defence 1.47, drawn from 60/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 67% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 11%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.50 PPG, Frosinone 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.