Bologna 4-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lecce have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bologna have won 2, Lecce 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus Lecce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Lecce 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.62 xG and Lecce 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.127 / defence 0.824 | Lecce attack 0.837 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.114. Data: 60 Bologna games / 61 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Lecce 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Lecce 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 1.62 / Lecce 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.127 / def 0.824 | Lecce attack 0.837 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Bologna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Lecce xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Bologna 4 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Bologna vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 56% chance of winning, Lecce a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Bologna and Lecce in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.62
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.39
0.77
Lecce xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
31.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bologna and 0.77 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 13W 21D 26L across 60 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 15W 11D 4L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 9D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.93 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Lecce have gone 13W 21D 26L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.87 PPG; Lecce away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Lecce 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bologna and 30% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lecce in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 30% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lecce tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lecce in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 4-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.62 xG and Lecce 0.77 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Lecce attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Lecce 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.