Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sligo Rovers (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sligo Rovers face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sligo Rovers host Longford Town at The Showgrounds in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sligo Rovers — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sligo Rovers at The Showgrounds this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Longford Town stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sligo Rovers are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Sligo Rovers hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Longford Town, with 0 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The historical record gives Sligo Rovers a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sligo Rovers trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Longford Town trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 44% versus Longford Town 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 31% | Longford Town 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.72 xG and Longford Town 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.981 / defence 0.939 | Longford Town attack 0.681 / defence 1.572. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.121. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.572 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Sligo Rovers games / 32 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Longford Town 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sligo Rovers (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sligo Rovers 40% | Longford Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.72 / Longford Town 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.981 / def 0.939 | Longford Town attack 0.681 / def 1.572 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Longford Town xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 November 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 61% chance of winning, Longford Town a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Record (3 meetings): Sligo Rovers 3W | Draws 0 | Longford Town 0W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Longford Town (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.98) and Longford Town's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.28
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.44
0.72
Longford Town xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
3%
36.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.72 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sligo Rovers's recent record stands at 14W 8D 10L from 32 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Longford Town, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 22L across 32 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sligo Rovers by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sligo Rovers have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Longford Town's away record stands at 0W 5D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.66 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Longford Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 games (1.56 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 22L in their last 32 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Longford Town away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.60 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Longford Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Longford Town in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sligo Rovers go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2021, when Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 40%, Longford Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sligo Rovers) and 47% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Longford Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Longford Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 60% of Longford Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 47% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Longford Town tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Longford Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Longford Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 1-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.72 xG and Longford Town 0.72 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Longford Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.57, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Longford Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Longford Town's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Longford Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.